Syria War on Development: socioeconomic monitoring report of Syria second quarterly report (April – June 2013)
The report brings out the basic underpinnings of the economic destruction and degradation that has been wrought by the ongoing regional Syrian crisis. This is the second quarterly report commissioned by UNRWA and UNDP from the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR) to provide an on-going assessment of the evolving socioeconomic landscape in Syria during the current crisis by using available official updates and utilizing econometric models to estimate other key indicators.1 It is hoped that these reports will provide an economic map and analytical tool by which different parties can plainly view the present risk and ruin in the economy to guide policies, programmes and interventions that can intercede under the current conditions, while providing an inclusive outlook for the future rehabilitation, reconstruction and development.
Complementing the first quarterly report this report builds on the framework, methodology and analysis developed in the Centre’s earlier report on "Socioeconomic Roots and Impacts of the Syrian Crisis" that analysed the situation in 2012.2 (SCPR, 2013a) It utilises a counterfactual methodology that compares the "crisis scenario", or the actual indicators that emerged during the crisis, with the "continuing scenario", or the indicators that would most likely have been achieved had the crisis not arisen. The report includes multiple macroeconomic and social performance indicators that were compiled and estimated based on official sources and in consultation with a number of experts. It also uses several models, such as financial programming, within a comprehensive developmental framework.
More specifically, this report investigates in-depth issues related to seasonality across quarterly periods, which is crucial to understand the impact of fluctuation in sectorial outputs on development. This report diagnoses the seasonal pattern of agriculture output, exports and imports, and private consumption. Additionally, besides projecting the indicators of 2013-Q2, the report revisits and re-evaluates the previous projections of 2012 and 2013-Q1 using updated data and information.