Somalia COVID19 Socio-Economic Impact Assessment 2021
Apr 5, 2021
This Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) has been established by a joint board, constituted by the Federal Government of Somalia and the international community, with strategic direction primarily informed by MoPIED.
This Socio-Economic Impact Assessment aims to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the macro-economic, business and vulnerability domains in Somalia covering the period of 2020. The results presented here do not come from a nationally representative sample survey, but rather are drawn from more than thirty assessments and points of analysis, conducted using different methods, sample populations, sample sizes and industries and markets.
The impact of COVID-19 on business and vulnerability however has been significant, mirroring similar patterns to those seen in Ethiopia and Djibouti. At the same time, Somalia has a far narrower fiscal space, noting that domestic revenue declined by 55 percent in 2020, impeding prospects for safety nets and business bailout support. The impact on vulnerability is likely to be across the board, with many individuals and households either expected to have fallen back into poverty, or to have been pushed below the poverty line for the first time. The impact on employment is difficult to assess because of the high levels of employment in the informal sector (which no enterprise survey has specifically assessed) and seasonality for certain sectors, though if Djibouti is used as an acceptable comparator, there have been substantial losses to employment in an already rather narrow employment market.
This report analyses more than 20 assessments across different areas to give a comprehensive picture of how the first wave of COVID19 affected Somalia.